You can almost bank on Liverpool to lose a lead these days and Man Utd are always solid at home.
Had the Liverpool v Man City game at 2-2 with the first goal at 33 mins (actual 50mins), then changed my mind on the score to 1-1. Even though I was bang on with the first prediction, it didn't really affect the trading too much. Took 20 mins out of 0-0 then used the profit to back 1-1. Greened up straight after the equaliser, adding 1.5% to the bank roll.
Couldn't really decide on a scoreline for Man Utd v Everton but I was sure Man Utd would win and really confident on first goal time at 37 mins (actual 34mins), simply because averages for both sides came out the same. Used 0-0 again for 30 mins then stuck the profit on 2-1, greened up after the second then put the lot on 3-1 and greened up after the third.
Really glad the Prem is back and to give some good solid results to my investor.
Tomorrow I'm off to Hook for Mr. Webb's Masterclass in Betfair trading...
Sunday 22 November 2009
Friday 13 November 2009
Like Count Dracula..,
...I am staked.
Such is the confidence in my ability to profitably trade football, I have been handed a bank roll from an investor.
Rather than kill or cure, this may kill or create. Time (90mins usually) will tell.
The Johnstone Paints Trophy games are likely watching their product dry and this weekend's internationals are of little consequence, though I might have a dabble with ROI v France.
Such is the confidence in my ability to profitably trade football, I have been handed a bank roll from an investor.
Rather than kill or cure, this may kill or create. Time (90mins usually) will tell.
The Johnstone Paints Trophy games are likely watching their product dry and this weekend's internationals are of little consequence, though I might have a dabble with ROI v France.
Monday 9 November 2009
Liverpool v Birmingham 2-2
Had this down at 2-1 with an inkling the first goal would come late. Thought the 11.5 for 0-0 and 30 for 0-1 were a steal for 20 mins but Liverpool struck when I was asking myself if I should get out early. Backed 2-1 at 10.5 as I was sure Birmingham would score, (7 goals from 8 games away), This pulled back 60% of my losses. Laid Liverpool straight after the second Brum goal, couldn't believe they were still 2.5 given Brum's defensive record. Closed that at 4.7 getting back the remaining 40% of my losses plus a few quid profit. Was tempted to lay Liverpool again after the penalty but that's just gambling.
Good game, great result.
I can't be arsed to copy and paste the emails. I'll tell you what I thought would happen regardless of the result.
I had this clash at 2/3-1 with the first goal at 40mins. Chelsea are averaging almost 3 goals a game at home and Man Utd are 2 per game away from Old Trafford, so my suggestion was realistic. However, the reds are Liverpool like at present, relying on Giggs and Rooney and Drogba has never scored against them in the league so the 1-0 could have been expected.
The important thing was the goal came after my predicted time which assured trading 0-0 and other scores up to 35 mins was nicely profitable. My intention was to lay 0-0 and back 1-1 after 40 mins but I left it until the restart. The goal coming as late as it did meant scratching the 1-1. Pre game I backed Chelsea for the title at 2.18 I closed it at 90 mins on 1.96. A good game and great result leading to a 5% increase on the bank roll.
I had this clash at 2/3-1 with the first goal at 40mins. Chelsea are averaging almost 3 goals a game at home and Man Utd are 2 per game away from Old Trafford, so my suggestion was realistic. However, the reds are Liverpool like at present, relying on Giggs and Rooney and Drogba has never scored against them in the league so the 1-0 could have been expected.
The important thing was the goal came after my predicted time which assured trading 0-0 and other scores up to 35 mins was nicely profitable. My intention was to lay 0-0 and back 1-1 after 40 mins but I left it until the restart. The goal coming as late as it did meant scratching the 1-1. Pre game I backed Chelsea for the title at 2.18 I closed it at 90 mins on 1.96. A good game and great result leading to a 5% increase on the bank roll.
Sunday 8 November 2009
Below are previous prediction e-mails I have sent this week.
Even though I was confident of an early goal in the Derby - Cov game I stupidly opened on 0-0 hoping to steal those ten minutes. Schoolboy error.
Was glad that my goal time prediction in the Wolves - Arsenal game was pretty close and that the cautionary note was also correct.
I have just sent the e-mail for the todays clash of the titans, Chelsea - Man U and look forward to posting the result tomorrow.
With the exception of Man City, who beat them 1-0, Wolves are yet to play any big sides in the league. So, tonight's game could be anything. On paper it's 0-2 possibly 1-2 and surprisingly the first goal is on 30 - 40 mins. But if Arsenal put on the same boots that beat Blackburn or Everton carnage may insue. I'm out for beers tonight so won't be watching and probably would open any trades pre game if I was.
From: To: Subject: Derby v CoventryDate: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:43:51 +0000
Despite taking longer than expected, last night's result was as predicted. I even managed to scratch the AUQ bet after the 2nd, though I did think Benfica would score more. I have the game at 2 - 1 with the first goal at 17 mins. 45% chance of a goal before this but I shall try and steal 10 mins of 0-0 0-1 and 1-0. I am confident of a goal in the first half hour so backing AUQ and/or 1-1/2-1 after 10 mins would be advised. Have an enjoyable and profitable weekend.
Even though I was confident of an early goal in the Derby - Cov game I stupidly opened on 0-0 hoping to steal those ten minutes. Schoolboy error.
Was glad that my goal time prediction in the Wolves - Arsenal game was pretty close and that the cautionary note was also correct.
I have just sent the e-mail for the todays clash of the titans, Chelsea - Man U and look forward to posting the result tomorrow.
With the exception of Man City, who beat them 1-0, Wolves are yet to play any big sides in the league. So, tonight's game could be anything. On paper it's 0-2 possibly 1-2 and surprisingly the first goal is on 30 - 40 mins. But if Arsenal put on the same boots that beat Blackburn or Everton carnage may insue. I'm out for beers tonight so won't be watching and probably would open any trades pre game if I was.
From: To: Subject: Derby v CoventryDate: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:43:51 +0000
Despite taking longer than expected, last night's result was as predicted. I even managed to scratch the AUQ bet after the 2nd, though I did think Benfica would score more. I have the game at 2 - 1 with the first goal at 17 mins. 45% chance of a goal before this but I shall try and steal 10 mins of 0-0 0-1 and 1-0. I am confident of a goal in the first half hour so backing AUQ and/or 1-1/2-1 after 10 mins would be advised. Have an enjoyable and profitable weekend.
Saturday 7 November 2009
Beginning at the end... of a good week.
After discovering a previously unearthed talent for predicting football results and goal times, for those who are interested, I thought I would relay my football trading diary.
A little history first. I have many pseudonyms, I no longer live in Dulwich but stole the name Dulwichtrader from a very nice shop in the village.
After working far too long in media and only enjoying sport and a punt at weekends, after being laid and paid off, I took the plunge into sports trading. It's tough. I'm a newbie, learning everyday. I may not make it but I'll have a bloody good go.
Anyway, a week ago, I put together a new strategy for predicting results. Since then, with the exception of dallying foolishly in the U17 World Cup, all predictions have been on the mark or money. And, thanks to Soccer Mystic's powers, (thank you Peter), I have had a good idea of what profit to expect and when.
I will not be publishing my predictions pre game, for obvious reasons. However, I send them to a select few via e-mail. The following day I shall post a screen shot of this e-mail, win lose or draw.
A little history first. I have many pseudonyms, I no longer live in Dulwich but stole the name Dulwichtrader from a very nice shop in the village.
After working far too long in media and only enjoying sport and a punt at weekends, after being laid and paid off, I took the plunge into sports trading. It's tough. I'm a newbie, learning everyday. I may not make it but I'll have a bloody good go.
Anyway, a week ago, I put together a new strategy for predicting results. Since then, with the exception of dallying foolishly in the U17 World Cup, all predictions have been on the mark or money. And, thanks to Soccer Mystic's powers, (thank you Peter), I have had a good idea of what profit to expect and when.
I will not be publishing my predictions pre game, for obvious reasons. However, I send them to a select few via e-mail. The following day I shall post a screen shot of this e-mail, win lose or draw.
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